Poly Real Estate (600048): Proactive deleveraging beyond expectations

Poly Real Estate (600048): Proactive deleveraging beyond expectations

This report reads: The company released a 天津夜网 quick performance report for 2019, and realized net profit attributable to mothers 265.

7 ‰, previously + 41%, the growth rate exceeded market expectations.

Key points for investment: The performance in 2019 continues to exceed expectations. Considering that the company’s average settlement price has still been reduced, it is expected that the performance will continue to maintain rapid growth.

Maintain overweight rating and raise 2019?
The EPS in 2021 will be 2.

23/2.

62/2.

93 yuan (the original 2.

15/2.

58/2.

91 yuan), raise the target price to 18.

62 yuan, the current price corresponding to 2019 PE is 7.

0 times.

The company’s net profit attributable to mother increased substantially, and the growth rate far exceeded the corresponding +21 for operating income.

1% (total 235.5 billion), corresponding to a net profit margin from 9.
.

7% increased to 11.

3%.

Judging from the average settlement price, the company was only 1 in 2018.

2 million / square meter, and the company’s sales have remained at 1 since 2014.

Above 20,000 yuan / square meter, and will reach 1 by 2019.

5 million / sqm, that is, through the price increase, the company’s settlement income increased rapidly.

With the acceleration of settlement, performance will continue to grow rapidly.

In terms of settlement area, the company’s sales volume in 2018 was 15.19 million cubic meters, which was slightly lower than the sales scale of 15.99 million in 2016.

Based on the average settlement price and settlement area, we believe that the company’s average settlement cycle is two.

5 years.

Then consider the compound growth rate of the company’s sales growth since the second half of 2017 to + 24%, the company’s future 2.

Five years will also maintain rapid revenue growth.

The initial investment intensity declined rapidly for 2 consecutive years, and financial stability was given priority, and land inventory was proactively 深圳桑拿网 removed.

The company reached its peak in investment intensity in 2017, and has declined for two consecutive years, considering that the company’s average sales price is 1.

50,000 yuan / square meter, and the floor price of new land is 0.

60,000 yuan, implied land to goods ratio (house price / floor price) is 2.

5, then the potential new value / sales amount in 2019 is only 0.

85 (corresponding to 2 in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

2 and 1.

1), reflecting that the company is still in the state of destocking.

Taking into account the company’s expectations of financing capacity, the current land destocking is an active behavior, not a passive one.

Risk Warning: The company is taking the wrong pace.